North Caucasus: Against the background of growing violence in Chechnya, militants have become much more effective

In 2016, the intensity of clashes in the North Caucasus increased markedly and the effectiveness of the militants' actions more than doubled compared to 2015 - the number of losses of the security forces per each killed militant. The upward trend in the effectiveness of the militants' actions continued in early 2017, primarily due to another aggravation of the situation in Chechnya. The increase in violence in the North Caucasus and the increase in the effectiveness of the armed underground can be explained by the failures in the work of the Rosgvardiya created in 2016 and the return of militants from Syria.

In 2016, the number of victims of the armed conflict in the North Caucasus compared to 2015increased by more than 11% - from 258 to 287 people.In the past year, the number of armed incidents in the North Caucasus decreased, in 2016 there were 84, and in 2015 there were 87 of them. The number of explosions increased from 11 to 23 cases (by 109%). The number of terrorist attacks also increased - from 6 to 7 (by 17%).These are the results of the calculations"Caucasian Knot" based on our own data and information from open sources. More detailed figures are published in the section "North Caucasus - casualty statistics "at the" Caucasian Knot ".

The increase in the number of victims of the conflict was due to the losses of the security forces

The number of civilian casualties in 2016 was 24 (8 killed and 16 injured). This is 31% less than in 2015, when 35 civilians were injured.

The total number of casualties among alleged militants, from 174 in 2015, fell 4.5% to 166, of whom 162 were killed and 4 were injured. In 2014, the militants lost 249 people killed - thus, we can talk about a trend towards a decrease in the number of killed militants over the past three years.

The number of victims among employees of power structures and law enforcement agencies in 2016 was 97 people (32 dead and 65 wounded). In 2015, 49 injured security officials were recorded, losses almost doubled.

At the same time, one can speak of such a tendency that in the confrontation with the security forces, the militants show that their actions have become much more effective.

If in 2015 the ratio of losses of security forces to losses of militants turned out to be at the level of 1 to 3.5, (i.e., for every ten killed and wounded security forces, militants lost on average 35 people), then in 2016 this figure was 1 to 1. 7 (for every 10 losses of the security forces, the militants have 17 losses). Perhaps this can be explained by the fact that those who have gained combat experience in Syria are returning to their homeland.

The "Caucasian Knot" emphasizes: in the statistics on the members of the armed underground, they primarily refer to those who have been declared as such by the law enforcement officers.

The number of victims among the security forces increased in the regions from 6% to 174%

Data on the number of victims of the armed conflict in Chechnya, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria and Ingushetia testify to a trend towards an increase in the effectiveness of militants.

October 9, 2016 In a shootout in the Gudermes region, eight suspected militants were killed and four police officers were wounded.

May 9, 2016 two armed men attacked a checkpoint in Grozny. One of them committed a self-detonation, the second was killed by law enforcement officers. The Chechen Interior Ministry announced six wounded security officials.

October 8, 2015 in Grozny during a special operation, according to official data, three members of the armed underground were killed and three officers of the security forces were wounded.

June 26, 2015 two residents of Chechnya, who opened fire on law enforcement officers, were killed in Grozny, two policemen were wounded.

January 1, 2015 As a result of a special operation in the village of Mekenskaya, according to security officials, the "emir of the Nadterechny and Naursk regions" Musa Zavgayev and Bashir Omarov, who was wanted on suspicion of committing grave crimes, were killed. Four security officials were injured.

Islamic State is increasingly reporting attacks in the North Caucasus

In August 2016, the Islamic State group, banned in Russia by a court and recognized as a terrorist group, released a video calling for jihad in Russia. In turn, Ramzan Kadyrov called the militants' statement "empty". "I declare with full responsibility that this 'statement' is an empty shell, behind which there are no real strengths and opportunities," Kadyrov wrote on August 1 on the social network Instagram.

In 2016, IS claimed responsibility for attacks on security forces in the North Caucasus at least six times: five in 2016 in Dagestan and one in Chechnya. In March 2017, the Islamic State organization, recognized in Russia as terrorist and banned by a court decision, claimed responsibility for the attack on the military in the village of Naurskaya.

At the same time, today there is evidence that IS militants carried out at least four attacks in Chechnya. And they all fall on the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017. In addition to the December 17-18 clash in Grozny, when 4 Interior Ministry officers and 7 alleged militants were killed (four more were detained), and the March attack on the Rosgvardia checkpoint (6 attackers and 6 servicemen were killed), at least two more clashes of security officials in Chechnya are known with alleged IS jihadists - in the village of Tsotsi-Yurt on January 11, 2017 and in the center of Shali on January 30.

It should be emphasized that the Imarat Kavkaz, which has become a rival of IS in the struggle for the commitment of the armed underground, has noticeably decreased activity in recent years - the last major attack, for which this organization, banned in Russia, took responsibility, was carried out by militants in December 2014.

In March 2016, Ekaterina Sokirianskaya presented a report on the export of jihad from the Caucasus to Syria. The report says that in Russia, the "Islamic State" banned in the country by the court has an organized underground, whose members can significantly increase the level of the terrorist threat. Therefore, the country is in dire need of "smart propaganda" so that young people do not have a desire to join the militants, Sokiryanskaya said. For the first time the text of the report in Russian was published on the "Caucasian Knot" in the "Reports" section.

Failures in the work of the National Guard against the background of the strengthening of the militants

On October 9, 2016, the body of a Russian Guard officer with several gunshot wounds was found in the Shali district of Chechnya.

Russian National Guard fighters also took part in massive raids to detain suspects in ties with IS. Guardsmen, among other things, detained minors.

In February 2017, a search was conducted in Chechnya for a Rosgvardia sergeant serving in the Naursky District. The military commandant's office of Chechnya reported that, according to preliminary data, he disappeared from the territory of the military unit, so one of the versions of his disappearance is desertion.

On the night of March 24, an attack was made on the checkpoint of the 140th artillery regiment of the 46th operational brigade of the Russian National Guard troops, located in the village of Naurskaya. As a result of the attack, six servicemen were killed and three more were wounded.

On March 29, RBC reported that the attackers on the Russian Guard in Chechnya took advantage of the military's discipline violations. In particular, according to the newspaper, which cites its sources in the Russian Guard and Chechnya, the checkpoint officers were asleep during the attack, and the patrol officers did not immediately recognize the attackers as strangers, as they heard from them the words that the guardsmen utter when they return from illegal leave. ... Ramzan Kadyrov admitted the defect of the security forces in connection with the attack on the Russian Guard.

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Why the fight against the "Islamic State" is dangerous for Russia

In 2016, the number of armed clashes and deaths as a result of acts of violence related to extremism in Chechnya increased compared to 2015. 2017 began with a major anti-terrorist operation by the Chechen Interior Ministry and the Russian National Guard against the armed underground accused of preparing terrorist attacks.

These events indicate an increase in the number of homegrown, extremist-minded radical youth in Chechnya. This trend is associated with the weakening of the so-called "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIS or Daesh) - a religious quasi-state with its own territory and armed forces, which until recently included many Chechen fighters. The Kremlin has declared the fight against ISIS one of the reasons for its intervention in Syria. However, if fighting ISIS for real, it could create problems on the internal front, or rather, in unstable Chechnya. This circumstance raises the question of whether the Kremlin will go to a real war with ISIS in Syria and beyond.

In 2016, the number of victims and deaths as a result of the armed conflict in Chechnya increased compared to 2015 by 46% and 93%, respectively. During the period under review, the number of incidents involving the use of weapons doubled. It is no coincidence that the counter-terrorist operation, unprecedented in scale for recent years, was carried out on January 9-16, 2017. In the course of it, more than 60 militants associated with ISIS were arrested, and four were killed. Two members of the National Guard were killed. The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, said that the entire group was coordinated by a native of the Chechen city of Shali in Syria. He added that the underground group was recruiting militants for ISIS.

In 2016, the outflow of potential fighters from Chechnya slowed down significantly. According to a source in the Chechen Interior Ministry, this year the number of those who left for Syria to participate in terrorist groups dropped to 19. This is several times less than in 2013, 2014 and 2015, when the number was in the hundreds. While the authorities attribute this sharp decline to the success of their preventive and operational measures, in reality it only reflects the fact that the territory controlled by ISIS in Syria and Iraq has shrunk.

On February 23, Putin announced that the number of Russian citizens fighting in Syria is approximately 4,000. Russia is the third country in the world in terms of the number of its citizens fighting in the ranks of ISIS and other extremist groups in Syria and Iraq. Chechnya is the largest Russian region in terms of the number of volunteers joining the ranks of ISIS combat units. The outflow of Chechens should be viewed in the context of certain contradictory statements such as “terrorism in Chechnya has been defeated”. However, one of the reasons for this "defeat" lies in the fact that Chechen fighters are leaving for hot spots of radical extremism, mainly in Syria. During the war in Syria, the activity of Caucasian underground organizations decreased by half, and this fact was confirmed by law enforcement agencies, experts, human rights defenders and residents of the region. Accordingly, the withdrawal of militants from Chechnya was perceived as an external solution to the problem of Russia's internal security.

But the current shrinking of ISIS-controlled territory and power means that such an external solution to the internal security problem will soon cease to work. The decline of ISIS does not at all imply an end to radicalization and the recruitment of militants in Chechnya - both are likely to continue among Chechen youth. And this cannot but affect the security situation.

First, the return of battle-hardened Syrian veterans, who will meet with those who returned home earlier, could pose a serious threat. However, this option is not very likely, since the Russian authorities have taken legislative precautions. Putin said in April 2015 that ISIS posed no threat to his country, but Russia is concerned that its citizens may return home after joining ISIS. According to the October 2013 amendments, the penalties for participation in terrorist groups abroad were increased. In fact, this measure blocks the way back for those who wish to return home. However, there is a possibility that someone will try to return thanks to behind-the-scenes agreements. In 2016, two bills were adopted that toughened the punishment for terrorism and extremism - the Yarovaya Law. The Yarovaya Law, among other things, was aimed at closing the opportunity for such kind of behind-the-scenes agreements.

Second, the fact that extremist radical youth will now remain in Chechnya could lead to a serious deterioration in the security situation and potentially give rise to a rapid rise in extremism. The first signs that such a scenario is possible were an increase in the number of armed clashes, casualties and deaths in connection with extremist activity in Chechnya, as well as a sharp decline in 2016 in the number of militants leaving Chechnya for Syria. The counter-terrorist operation, carried out on January 9-16, 2017, was an attempt by the authorities to prevent the development of such a scenario. “Despite the work we are doing, they managed to convince so many young people and they were ready to go to certain death for some unknown idea,” Ramzan Kadyrov said. Chechen underground groups continue to constantly recruit these young people. ISIS's significant losses of its territory, the weakening of its positions and the Mosul operation indicate the imminent collapse of this quasi-state. Having lost control over the territories, ISIS will not be able to accept new fighters from Chechnya. In turn, these would-be fighters will be disappointed and less likely to join ISIS overseas. Such a scenario could lead to the accumulation of potential militants and radicalized youth in Russia itself. As a result, the Kremlin could face a serious deterioration in the situation and even a surge of extremism in Chechnya - Russia's worst nightmare. On the other hand, continued ISIS military activity in Syria and other countries would lead to an outflow of radicalized youth from Russian territory, which would disrupt the implementation of this scenario. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how sincerely Russia wants to fight ISIS in Syria or elsewhere outside its borders.

Originally posted on Russia File, the Kennan Institute blog

MOSCOW, 24 Mar - RIA Novosti. Terrorists attacked a military unit of the Russian Guard in Chechnya. As a result of the attack, six servicemen were killed and the militants were killed.

Fog attack

The bandits' sortie took place in the middle of the night - at 2:30. The Rosgvardia said that the criminals tried to penetrate the location of the 140th artillery regiment of the military unit 3761, which is located in the Naursky district of Chechnya.

The terrorists deliberately chose the time when there was a thick fog in the area of ​​the military facility.

"When trying to penetrate into the territory of the military town, the bandit group was discovered by a military detachment, which entered into battle with it. Six attackers were destroyed," the Rosguard said in a statement.

The department noted that the fighters managed to prevent the militants from entering the facility.

“The bandits were found to have firearms and ammunition, and on the bodies of two of them there were dummies of suicide belts,” the National Anti-Terrorism Committee said.

The Investigative Committee opened a criminal case on the fact of the incident under the articles "Encroachment on the life of servicemen", "Participation in an armed formation not provided for by federal law", "Illegal arms trafficking", "Theft of firearms".

According to the ministry, the militants were armed with firearms and knives.

An operational investigation group and explosives technicians from the FSB are currently working at the scene.

Losses of security officials

As a result of the terrorist attack, six soldiers were killed. Their names and titles have not been specified.

Three more soldiers were injured.

"This is a rangefinder of an artillery regiment, a commander of an engineer-sapper battery, a deputy commander of a battery," a source in the law enforcement agencies told RIA Novosti.

All the victims were first taken to the central regional hospital, after which they were transferred to a hospital in Grozny.

According to the interlocutor of the agency, the condition of one of the wounded is assessed as serious - a bullet hit him in the head.

"Two victims received gunshot wounds to their legs, their condition is of moderate severity," the source added.

"Honestly fulfilled their military duty"

The incident was commented on by the director of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov, who today presented awards to distinguished employees.

“Unfortunately, our solemn event was overshadowed by the tragic events that occurred last night in the village of the Naurskaya Chechen Republic. As a result of a dastardly suicide attack, six of our comrades died. They honestly fulfilled their military duty, preventing civilian casualties,” Zolotov said. ...

The participants honored the memory of the fallen soldiers with a minute of silence.

The militants go for broke

Vasily Piskarev, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Security and Countering Terrorism, said that Russia will continue to react toughly to manifestations of terrorism.

"They do this out of despair. When they go for broke, it means that people have reached the edge, the bottom, when it is impossible to go further. Terrorism is the bottom, a dead end, from which there is no way out," the parliamentarian said, commenting on the attack in Chechnya.

"And our country, with the help of highly qualified actions of law enforcement agencies, will continue to react to such actions toughly and uncompromisingly," Piskarev added.

Terrorists went for weapons

Former State Duma deputy Anvar Makhmutov believes that the purpose of the bandits was to seize weapons.

Opinion: the militants who attacked the Rosgvardia facility in Chechnya came from abroadSix terrorists were killed in an attempt to attack a military unit of the Russian Guard in the Chechen Republic. International affairs expert Anvar Makhmutov expressed the opinion on the air of Sputnik radio that the purpose of the terrorists was to seize weapons.

"When the enemy is almost defeated, he becomes particularly daring. The success in the Caucasus in the fight against terrorism should not weaken the Rosguard units - they were trying to test their strength by forces that, unfortunately, have not stopped their activities there. The enemy is insidious, experienced." - Makhmutov said on the air of Sputnik radio.

The expert also called for strengthening the military units of the Russian Guard.

"The enemy has shown that not only civilians, but also objects of power structures can be the target of an attack. I think that serious measures will be taken to prevent such factors - the military units of the Russian Guard will be reinforced with more modern means of warning," he said.

On the night of Friday, March 24, at about 2.30 a group of militants (according to various sources, numbering six to eight people) tried to break through to the Rosgvardia base. This is the 140th artillery regiment of unit 3761, located in the Naursky district of the Chechen Republic.

The militants intended to take advantage of the heavy fog and infiltrate the officers' dormitories. “When attempting to enter the territory of the military town, the bandit group was discovered by a military detachment, which entered into battle with it,” the Russian Guard said.

The main exchange of fire took place at the checkpoint at about three o'clock in the morning.

As a result, six terrorists were killed, and, according to some information, two more managed to hide in the nearest forest.

The search for them is ongoing. According to the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC), the militants were found to have firearms and ammunition, and on the bodies of two of them were dummies of suicide belts.

“Unfortunately, it was not possible to avoid losses from the soldiers of the National Guard. There are dead and wounded among the servicemen, ”the ministry added. As a result of the attack

six soldiers of the Russian Guard were killed, three people were wounded. One of the victims was wounded in the head and is in serious condition.

The condition of the rest is assessed as “moderate”.

A regime of full combat readiness has been introduced on the territory of the military unit. On the territory of the Naursky region of Chechnya, after the attack of militants on the military unit of the Russian Guard, the "Intercept" plan was introduced. Explosives technicians are working at the scene. In addition, operational-search activities and investigative actions are underway, as well as identification of gang members.

The commander-in-chief of the Federal Service of the National Guard of Russia believes that the soldiers of the National Guard at the cost of their lives prevented casualties among the civilian population.

“A dastardly suicide attack on the 140th artillery regiment of the 46th separate brigade claimed the lives of six of our comrades in arms, who honorably fulfilled their military duty and prevented numerous civilian casualties,” Zolotova quotes.

Note that the Russian Guard is actively involved in counter-terrorism operations in the Caucasus. So, according to the department, in 2016 in the North Caucasus Federal District 82 militants were destroyed by its fighters, among them there were 9 bandit leaders. In addition, about 50 homemade bombs were defused. In total, Rosgvardia units have helped in carrying out more than a thousand special operations.

The last high-profile attack by militants on police in the capital of Chechnya took place on the night of December 18, 2016. Then, according to the head of the region Ramzan Kadyrov,

the militants seized a police car and intended to stage a terrorist attack in Grozny. In a shootout with the police, four militants were killed, and several more, including one girl, were wounded and detained.

Some of the attackers managed to escape. The surviving militants were blocked in the Staropromyslovsky district of the city. It was reported that the attackers were part of the banned in the Russian Federation.

However, Rosgvardia officers are attacked not only in Chechnya. At the end of December 2016, on the territory of the Troitsky and Novomoskovsky administrative districts, a group of persons was stopped by a Rosguard detachment to check the documents. The security detachment arrived in the village of Rogovskoye, where a group of robbers was operating. Finding no one on the spot, the security forces began to check the area around the store. In the building of the old fire station, they stumbled upon a group of people who were asked to show their documents. At that moment, the criminals opened fire on the police officers from unidentified weapons.

As a result, one officer - senior police sergeant Viktor Glebov - was killed, he was hit in the chest, another policeman was wounded. The criminals took away the weapon from the killed Rosguard soldier: two machine guns and a pistol with full ammunition. As reported on the website of the department,

“Senior police sergeant Viktor Glebov, who died in the line of duty, was 30 years old. He served in law enforcement since 2011. He is survived by his wife, mother and two-year-old daughter. "

Detained eight people on suspicion of attacking the guards. It is known that the detainees were involved in several robberies and robberies. “The detainees are residents of different regions of Russia and are part of an organized group. They are involved in a number of robberies of trade objects and warehouses, including with the use of weapons, "- said a TASS source in law enforcement agencies.

15:16 — REGNUM The situation in Chechnya is under the control of the head of the region Ramzan Kadyrov. No state is immune from terrorist attacks, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation told reporters today, March 24 Dmitry Peskov.

Commenting on the message about the attack in Chechnya by militants on the National Guard officers, Peskov noted that the situation in the region is under Kadyrov's control. Law and order are ensured by the power and law enforcement structures, which the president appreciates very much.

"But, as the president said, no country in the world is immune from terrorist attacks - be it the Chechen Republic or the capital of Great Britain, unfortunately, these attacks happen everywhere."- said Peskov.

We will remind that the attack on the employees of the National Guard took place on March 24. Six people were killed and three injured.

A military unit in the Russian Guard near the village of Naurskaya (Chechnya) was attacked. The participants in the attack were destroyed.

As previously reported IA REGNUM, Deputy Commander of the North Caucasian District of the Rosgvardia Troops Major General Nikolay Dolonin stated that all military units of the Russian Guard in the North Caucasus are on alert.