Usually they discuss what will happen with global warming. The ice will melt and the sea level will rise. Everyone has seen these cards - for Russia it will not be too critical. Some coastal areas will go under water, but nothing critical, such as for countries such as the Netherlands, England, etc.
But for example, experts believe that global cooling will bring catastrophic consequences for Russia. Look here...
Global cooling will create ice dams at the mouth of the Siberian rivers, and they will block the river flows. Water from the Ob and Yenisei, not finding an outlet to the ocean, will flood the lowlands. Excess water will fill the Turan lowland, the Aral Sea will merge with the Caspian Sea, the level of which will rise by more than 80 meters. Further, water along the Kumo-Manych depression will spill into the Don. The Krasnodar Territory, part of Turkey and Bulgaria will go under water. To avoid the onset of the ice age, humanity needs to support the work of the main earth battery - the Gulf Stream.
This can be done in two ways: the first is to launch the eastern warm Kuroshio Current into the Arctic, the second is to pump the Gulf Stream to the north.
The climate is warming, and quite significant. Over the past century, the average temperature on the globe has risen by 0.7-0.8 degrees. Nothing like this has happened on the planet for more than two millennia. Cycles of warming and cooling have always existed on Earth. Scientists are still arguing about what causes them. Some believe that this is caused by the changing activity of the Sun, others say that it gets colder on the planet during periods when solar system passes through dust and gas accumulations, others blame the earth's axis, which constantly fluctuates and changes its angle of inclination.
Back in 1939, the Yugoslav scientist Milankovitch calculated that the Earth's climate changes in three cycles - 23,000, 41,000 and 100,000 years (they were called the Milankovitch cycles). In accordance with them, humanity is now experiencing the very heat (Great Summer), which should be replaced by cold (Great Winter). And the change will take place not millennia, and not centuries (as it is now with global warming) - it will take place in 10-15, maximum 50 years.
About what can cause a new ice age and how, in particular, Russia will change then, is described in the book by science popularizer Valery Chumakov "The End of the World: Forecasts and Scenarios" (ENAS publishing house, 2010). For informational purposes, we present an excerpt from a book on global cooling.
How the Gulfstream works
The Gulf Stream is the most powerful warm current on the planet. It originates in the Gulf of Mexico, where the winds drive huge masses of water through the Yucatan Strait, and goes to the north of the Atlantic, up to the islands New Earth and Spitsbergen, overcoming about 10 thousand kilometers along the way; its width is 110-120 kilometers. The current speed reaches 10 km / h.
Salty ocean water heated near the equator, moving north, gradually releases its heat into the atmosphere. Ocean winds carry warm air to the mainland and warm coastal and island states. Having reached the northernmost point, the Gulf Stream cools down completely. Its salty water is heavier than the fresher water of the Arctic Ocean. It descends to a depth and, having turned into a deep-sea cold Labrador current, begins its return journey south to the equator. This "lowering" ensures the continuous operation of the giant thermal conveyor, which is the Gulf Stream. The "elevator" will stop, moving the flow from one current to another - the entire conveyor will also stop. The shutdown will lead to a sharp drop in average temperatures in most of the leading countries of the world - in the USA, England, France, Germany, etc. Norway will be the worst in this case, here the temperature will immediately drop by 15-20 degrees.
For this stop, it is necessary to increase the temperature in the region of the North Pole by only 1.2 degrees. Then the melting Arctic glaciers will "merge" into the Arctic Ocean with a huge mass of fresh cold water. Mixed with the salt water of the Gulf Stream, the fresh water will greatly lighten it and prevent it from sinking to the bottom. At the end of its journey, the current will simply disperse over the surface and, having no reverse course, will stop.
But this will not happen overnight. The process of stopping will take from 2 to 7 years, during which the Gulf Stream will increasingly shift to the south, until it closes on the cold Canary Current, which is now washing the shores of West Africa. At the same time, the temperature will drop in the countries of Northern and Western Europe and on the east coast of the United States.
Stopping the Gulf Stream and a sharp cooling in Europe and South America will become a kind of "trigger" that will launch a chain of further changes. The drop in temperature will cause the snow cover in these regions to last much longer. And since the albedo (reflectivity) of white snow is about nine times higher than the albedo black earth, then and sunlight will be reflected from it almost completely, without turning into heat. A kind of chain reaction will result, which will lead to the fact that snow will cover the ground almost all year round.
Then the process of glacial advance will begin. More precisely, leaks, because glaciers are flowing - not so slowly, their speed can reach up to 7 meters per day. The cooling of the oceans will lead to the fact that it will begin to absorb from the atmosphere carbon dioxide. It will be similar to the situation with champagne: the colder it is, the less gas it releases. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will greatly decrease, and since it is the main greenhouse gas, the greenhouse effect will weaken, respectively, and the temperature on the planet will continue to fall.
All this applies mainly to coastal areas. Those territories where 40% of the world's population now lives and which produce more than half of the world's product. Russia will have different problems, but not less. A group of Russian scientists led by Valery Karnaukhov, deputy director of the Institute of Cell Biophysics (Pushchino), on the instructions of the Russian Emergencies Ministry in April 2000 calculated the scenario according to which events would develop in our country.
Russian sea
So, the Gulf Stream stopped, warm water does not enter the Arctic, and soon a huge ice dam forms along the northern coast of Russia. Large Siberian rivers rest against this dam: Yenisei, Lena, Ob, etc. After the formation of the Siberian ice dam, ice jams on the rivers will become more and more powerful, and spills - more and more extensive.
In the early 1950s, the USSR developed a project to create the West Siberian Sea. Huge dams were supposed to block the currents of the Ob and Yenisei at the exit to the ocean. As a result, the entire West Siberian lowland would have been flooded, the country would have received the world's largest Severo-Obskaya hydroelectric power station, and the evaporation of the new sea, comparable in area to the Mediterranean, should have greatly softened the sharply continental Siberian climate. However, the largest oil reserves were found in the territory that was subject to flooding, and the “seabuilding” had to be postponed.
(What happened to the temperature in the northern hemisphere over the past million years)
Now, what man could not do, nature will do. Only the ice dam will be larger than the one they were going to build. Consequently, the spill will be larger. Ice dams will finally block river flows over time. Water from the Ob and Yenisei, not finding an outlet to the ocean, will flood the lowlands. The water level in the new sea will rise until it reaches 130 meters. After that, it will begin to flow to Europe through the Turgai hollow, located in the eastern part of the Ural Mountains. The resulting stream will wash away a 40-meter layer of soil and expose the granite bottom of the hollow. As the channel expands and deepens, the level of the young sea will fall and fall to 90 meters.
Excess water will fill the Turan lowland, the Aral Sea will merge with the Caspian Sea, the level of which will rise by more than 80 meters. Further, water along the Kumo-Manych depression will spill into the Don. And these will be the great Siberian rivers Ob and Yenisei completely turned towards Europe. All the Central Asian republics will be under water, and the Don itself will turn into the most full-flowing river in the world, next to which the Amazon and Amur will look like streams. The width of the stream will reach 50 kilometers or more. The level of the Sea of Azov will rise so much that it will flood the Crimean peninsula and merge with the Black Sea. Further, the water will go through the Bosphorus to the Mediterranean Sea, but the Bosphorus will not cope with such volumes. The Krasnodar Territory, part of Turkey and almost all of Bulgaria will go under water.
Scientists allocate 50-70 years for everything. By this time, the northern part of Russia, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, almost all of Great Britain, most of Germany and France will already be covered in ice.
"Atlantis" on the path of a warm current
There are other scenarios, for example, proposed by Russian scientist Nikolai Zharvin. He and his supporters believe that the change of epochs of glaciation and warming does not occur at all because the amount of heat received by it increases or decreases. According to their theory, these giant cataclysms are caused by vertical oscillations of the two largest lithospheric plates- North American and North Eurasian.
The Gulf Stream 8 thousand years ago did not reach the north of Europe and America. His path was blocked by a rather extensive island, the size of Greenland. Resting against it, the current turned away and warmed not Scandinavia, as it is now, but the already warm Gibraltar. The lack of heat led to the fact that the surface of the continents already beyond the 50th parallel (the southern border of Great Britain) was covered with a layer of ice. It is believed that the ice reserve of the same Greenland was then three times more than today. Due to the fact that the mass of water accumulated in the northern glaciers, the level of the World Ocean was lower than today by 150 meters. It was during this period that people settled a lot of islands now cut off from each other, and maybe even moved from Europe to America on dry land.
The pressure of the Greenland ice on the North American plate led to the fact that, unable to withstand the load, it broke and dropped sharply into the planet, into the magma layer. This was accompanied by a monstrous earthquake and a series of powerful volcanic eruptions. When everything calmed down, it turned out that the island blocking the way to the Gulf Stream was gone. The fault went right through him, and he just plunged into the ocean depths to more than a kilometer deep. Some time later, people, remembering this fertile land washed by the tropical current, will call it Atlantis and will remember it as a lost earthly paradise.
The Gulf Stream, now not encountering any obstacles on its way, broke through to the north and began its stormy climate-forming activity there. Gradually, the Arctic warmed up and freed itself from the accumulated excess ice. Now Greenland's reserves are only a third of what it used to be - 2.7 million cubic meters. km. And this would be normal if stocks were not depleted at an ever-increasing rate. Glaciers in North America lose up to 10 meters in height per year. When their mass drops to a critical one, a new rupture will occur and the North American plate will rush upwards for about a kilometer, again revealing Atlantis to the world. Supporters of Jarvin called the future cataclysm "Icelandic steam explosion".
Masses of water vapor, escaping through the formed cracks into the atmosphere, will cover the planet with a dense layer of rain clouds, from which truly biblical rain will pour down on the Earth. Trillions of tons of water will fall on the continents, which will lead to the flooding of all lowland and flat areas. The earthquake will give rise to a series of powerful tsunamis that will simply wash away all coastal European and American cities. And the Gulf Stream, having again met Atlantis that has emerged from the abyss, will go south, giving rise to a new ice age.
Salvation - dam across the Bering Strait
What is the recipe for salvation - how to help the Gulf Stream? In order to avoid the onset of the ice age or to delay its arrival, humanity needs to support the work of the main earth battery - the Gulf Stream. This can be done in two ways: the first is to launch the eastern warm salty Kuroshio Current into the Arctic, the second is to pump the Gulf Stream to the north.
In 1891, the great Arctic explorer Fridtjof Nansen proposed to the Russian government to widen and deepen the Bering Strait in order to facilitate access to the Arctic Ocean for the rather powerful but limited Kuroshio. As a result, the climate of the Arctic would become much milder, and the navigation of the Northern Sea Route would increase significantly.
In the early 1960s, projects for warming the Arctic began to take on real features. In 1962, the Soviet engineer P. Borisov proposed to build a giant dam across the Bering Strait. The pumping units located in it were supposed to pump 140 thousand cubic kilometers of water from the Arctic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean per year. The resulting shortage in the Arctic Ocean would be replenished by “drawing in” the warm currents of the Atlantic. So the Gulf Stream could reach the mouth of the Yenisei, where the Greenland glaciers would no longer spoil it.
If the plan is implemented Soviet Union would reduce the cost of mining in Siberia by an order of magnitude, would make the richest oil and gas-bearing regions of the country more livable and would receive an almost year-round shipping route from Europe to Asia - not bypassing, through the Suez Canal, but almost directly - through Arctic Ocean.
The idea of the Bering waterworks was so popular in the 1960s that drawings of the dam were even printed in the Children's Encyclopedia, and its sketches were on matchboxes.
However, the military intervened. The main bases of the Soviet nuclear submarine fleet were located in the North, and it was not at all necessary that trade caravans roamed in these strategically important areas all year round. The project of "warming" Russia was closed.
sources
An international group of scientists claims that in 15 years a small glacial period. It will be similar to the one that took place between 1645 and 1715. Then in Europe and North America there were very cold winters, the water in the Thames and Danube froze, and the Moscow River was covered with ice every six months, snow lay on some plains all year round.
The scientists' report was presented at a conference of the Royal Astronomical Society in Llandudno (Wales), and now it is being prepared for publication in the journal Nature, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
The message caused a strong reaction around the world, which is not surprising. Scientists went against the current, against world public opinion. For example, US President Barack Obama recently called global warming the main problem of humanity.
Active preparations are underway for the World Climate Conference, which will be held at the end of the year in Paris. All countries will need to make serious commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The vast majority of scientists, including those who until recently doubted the negative impact of humans on the climate, have changed their minds and are in favor of a sharp reduction in emissions. Although it will cost huge sums. There is no other option to stop the onset of climate cataclysms.
Claims that the current warming may be just another natural cycle are no longer heard. Recall that science has proven that there have been several periods in history, both global warming and global cooling.
In addition, it has been established that the activity of the Sun and spots on it are cyclical. The most famous of them: 11-year, 90-year and 300-400-year cycles. And Maunder minima are not new either, and many scientists do not see a direct link between the number of sunspots and climate. The phenomenon of the turn of the XVII-XVIII centuries. considered a mere coincidence. Other facts confirming this are not known: by historical standards, it is extremely small.
Many scientists are skeptical about the climate forecast based on the number of sunspots is understandable. First of all, because the mechanism itself, why they appear there, is still unclear. Therefore, there are no guarantees that the climate prediction based on spots will be correct. As one climatologist noted, such predictions are reminiscent of shamanism and divination, since they are based solely on empirical data, as well as the timing of previous cycles.
But nature does not work according to a chronometer and often brings surprises. Which, by the way, happened to the next, 24th, solar cycle, in which we now live. According to all statistics, it should be active, with a large number of sunspots. As predicted by most astrophysicists. However, this prediction failed. The sun became unusually passive.
As it has now become clear, the forecast for sunspots with a more or less high probability works for a maximum of one cycle ahead, which is why the error occurred with the 24th cycle. According to one of the authors of the sensational work, an employee of the Lomonosov Institute of Nuclear Physics, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Elena Popova, scientists have found a criterion for the activity of the Sun. It's not the number of spots on it, but the change magnetic field luminaries. It was also possible to explain the mechanism why and how the activity of the luminary changes, why such phenomena as Maunder minima arise. As a result, the picture of the Sun's behavior both in distant history and in the future became clearer.
The created model was able to accurately predict that in the 24th cycle there should be a decline in activity. In addition, it has passed the test of historical data since 1200. And then scientists made a forecast of solar activity up to 3200.
According to Elena Popova, an analogue of the Maunder Minimum with a Little Ice Age will be in the 26th cycle. If at the turn of the XVII - XVIII centuries. it lasted about 60 years, then the current one will begin in 2030 - 2040. and will last no more than 30 years. Most likely, the consequences will not be as strong as in the previous low. Then a new, 28th, period of solar activity will begin.
Opponents of this hypothesis argue that so far there is no absolutely proven connection between solar activity and climate. There are only a few studies that point to this possibility, as well as some historical examples, in particular Maunder lows. But there is also no clear evidence that humans are to blame for global warming. Over the past 400 thousand years, there have been several global warmings and ice ages when there were no humans on Earth at all. It appeared about 60 thousand years ago, and began to emit carbon dioxide intensively only 100 years ago.
"Look - this is new" - a person could say, but it was once, it was already here before we appeared.
Then, what happened a long time ago, people do not remember, what is happening now, people will not remember, and later other people will not remember what was done before them.
Ecclesiastes.
The climate on Earth is changing. In Eastern Europe, winters that were snowy and frosty 35-40 years ago have become mild and snowless. Summer has become dry and hot. In Western Europe, on the contrary, winters have become snowy, with bitter frosts. Even Spain is covered with snow, precious vineyards are freezing. The glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica are melting and retreating. The Arctic Ocean, to the delight of Russian sailors and the Russian government, is opening up from ice. Young people with placards are banging on frying pans, demanding to save polar bears. There has been no rain in Africa for 6 years, and Kilimanjaro and Kenya have freed themselves from their snow caps, which fed entire countries with water, including the Great Nile.
Mount Kilimanjaro with remnants of a glacier.
Movies - disasters from Hollywood add fuel to the fire, the population is worried, clever people slip articles to the public, governments of wealthy countries documents, the meaning of which boils down to one thing: "Give us a lot of money!". So what will happen - eternal ice melt, sea levels rise and flood coastal cities? Or from the rapid melting of the ice of Greenland cold fresh water cause the Gulf Stream to sink into the depths of the northern Atlantic and turn back towards the equator? Then a monstrous glacier up to a kilometer thick will crush Europe within 20-30 years, burying its culture and civilization under itself. Where to run and where to save yourself?
But the geography teacher high school told that, not so long ago (by geological standards), the East European Plain and all of Europe was almost completely covered by a glacier, two "tongues" of which approached Kyiv and Kharkov. Then the glaciers melted and retreated far to the north, and new plains were inhabited by forests and animals, followed by people in these places. For some reason, he only called this fertile period "interglacial", a short period of heat in a long ice age, called "Quaternary". Before that, there was ... also an ice age, called the "Tertiary". It turns out that we live in a relatively prosperous, warm, but short-term period, which will be replaced by a new glaciation.
Granite boulders are scattered across the fields of Europe. Two hundred years ago, people had no idea where they came from. Simple people explained this by the tricks of the devil. Scientists came up with various hypotheses, for example, that the stones were thrown out by volcanic explosions or a powerful earthquake. The great poet and remarkable naturalist J. W. Goethe believed that granite boulders were brought by floating iceoceanthat once flooded Europe. To justify this, he had to admit both the huge advances of the ocean on land, and much colder times that gave rise to such powerful ice who were able to carry granite blocks in themselves. But to imagine that several tens of thousands of years ago, almost all of Europe was a huge continental glacier, similar to the current Greenland or Antarctic, and the boulders of Europe and the stone-sand ridges of Denmark were just moraine deposits of a retreating glacier, even he did not have enough imagination for this . So, once it was very cold, and then the Earth got warmer. Scientists have dealt with the period of the "Quaternary" glaciation in such detail that something can be said quite definitely. All retreats - advances of ice over the past millions of years were determined from space, or rather, from long-term periodic changes in the main astronomical parameters of the Earth. It has long been known that the eccentricity of the earth's orbit around the sun, and the inclination of the earth's axis relative to the plane of the orbit, and the plane of the orbit itself are not constant, but change over millennia and these changes can be accurately calculated mathematically. For 2.5 million years of "Quaternary" glaciation, paleoclimatologists counted 20 cycles of advances and retreats of glaciers. By this they confirmed the calculations of the Serbian mathematician M. Milanković, made on the eve of World War II. Milankovitch was the first to think of transferring millennial changes in the main astronomical parameters of the Earth to the earth's soil. All these astronomical parameters, their change, affect the influx of solar energy. These parameters change, obeying cosmic cycles in the motion of the Earth around the Sun. There are several such cycles. For example, these:
- 26 thousand years. The period of precession of the earth's axis. The circle described by the end of the axis under the combined action of the solar and terrestrial tides.
- 41 thousand years . The period of change in inclination of the axis (22.1˚ - 24.5˚).
- 100 thousand years . The period of change in the eccentricity of the earth's orbit around the sun.
And although Milankovitch was mistaken in many respects (for example, he diverted precessions leading role in climate change,did not take into account the 100-thousand-year cycle, as well as the emerging positive feedback, which increase glaciation), his work has not been forgotten. The case of the development of the orbital theory of paleoclimate,explaining the influence of all known natural factors (unlike the Milankovitch theory),based on precise mathematical calculations, the Russian scientist V. Bolshakov continued.
The combination of orbital cycles, their mutual superposition and subtraction, gives rise to this pseudocyclicity (20 cycles of advances and retreats of glaciation over the past 2.5 million years). As these cycles affect the Earth's climate, they can be distributed as follows:- The main one is the 100,000-year rhythm.
- A less influential rhythm is the 185,000-year-old.
- 41 thousand year rhythm.
- 26 thousand year rhythm.
The penultimate, Melentevskoe, warming began 135 thousand years ago. The glaciers that had been advancing and accumulating for 80,000 years before began to melt with increasing intensity. The peak of warming came 132 thousand years ago. The glaciers retreated far to the north, but the climate remained unstable. During the entire period of this Melentyevsk interglacial (135 - 115 thousand years ago), warmings were replaced by sharp coolings. Glaciers made rapid forays to the south, destroying everything in their path. During the 20,000 years of the interglacial, only 2,000 years were with a calm and temperate climate. In addition to the sharp cooling caused by both already known scientists and also unknown reasons, 131 thousand years ago there was an “unplanned” caused by an “intraterrestrial” cause: grandiose volcanic eruptions. These eruptions, evidenced by elevated levels of sulfuric acid and dust in ice cores, led to a monstrous "volcanic winter", a 750-year period of cooling. This is determined by the height of an ice core from Greenland, one and a half meters high. Then the inter-leaf period, having barely begun, was almost replaced by a new ice age. But then everything worked out, and the period of warming continued. However, 115 thousand years ago, a new volcanic eruption led to an equally deep and rapid cooling. It lasted 70 years (15 cm of compressed ice from a depth of 2792.2 m in Greenland). The volcanic winter then also gave way to warming, but the cosmic rhythm that led to warming was ending. And eemia (Melentevskoe interglacial) for the period of the main cosmic cycle of 100 thousand years was replaced by the last ice age. It was a period of centuries-old (for middle latitudes) winters, when life clung to the equator, and to the north and south of 45 - 50˚ there were lifeless spaces covered with eternal snow and ice. 20 thousand years ago, a new warming began, which continues to this day. But not only the 100-thousand-year cycle determines the onset of the interglacial. Within it, there are other cycles of cooling and warming, with a shorter period, within one of which we are living now. This cycle is formed mutual arrangement Moon and Sun relative to the Earth and tidal forces formed by the Moon and the Sun. The moon, revolving around the Earth, forms two tidal waves that go around the Earth in a day. But the magnitude of these tides is not the same. Twice a month, the Moon and the Sun line up roughly in one line. Then the gravitational perturbations from the Moon and the Sun add up, and the tides become the largest in the month. In addition, once a month, the Moon in an elliptical orbit comes as close to the Earth as possible, increasing the tide by 40%. The tidal force also depends on whether the Sun and Moon pass exactly over the Earth's equator. In this case, the tidal force also increases. The plane of the Moon's orbit around the Earth and the plane of the Earth's revolution around the Sun periodically coincide for a certain period. At this time, several consecutive solar and lunar eclipses occur on Earth, that is, total syzygies (when all three celestial bodies line up). Such a coincidence of orbits occurs once every 18.6 years, which was well known to the ancient Chaldeans. This period they called the period of saros, "superyear". During this period of coincidence of orbits, once every 18.6 years, the tides on Earth are especially strong. But there are, it turns out, periods of stronger tides. Once in 1800 - 1900 years (approximately 100 "superyears", 100 saros) the Earth, the Moon and the Sun enter the "supersaros" band. At this time, all three bodies not only often fall into the exact "syzygy" position, but at the same time the Earth is closer to the Sun, and the Moon is closer to the Earth. In such and such eras, “terrible winters” come to Earth and come. That is, within our interglacial there are cycles of warming and cooling alternating with a period of approximately 1850 years. These cycles are clearly visible in the traces of moraines of mountain glaciers. It turns out that over the past 15 thousand years, mountain glaciers have not retreated smoothly. Periods of retreat of glaciers were replaced by their advance. There are no more than 8 such moraines around the world in 15,000 years (on average, one advance of glaciers for 1875 years). With the same periodicity, the sea level fluctuates, the rhythm of the overall moisture content of the Earth. Many natural rhythms of the Earth are subject to 1850-year cycles. These rhythms were discovered by the Russian geographer A. V. Shnitnikov, whose teaching is widely known in the scientific world and respected by many geographers. This is how the connection between climatic rhythms and the periodicity of supertidal epochs is groped.
How tides affect Earth's 1850-year warming and cooling cycles.
The mechanism of the lunar and solar tides on weather and climate was the first to be felt by Fridtjof Nansen during his voyage on the famous Fram. Nansen discovered and correctly explained internal tidal waves in the ocean. The tidal rise involves not only the surface, but also the deep layers of the ocean. Many years after Nansen's findings, while performing a hydrological survey between Norway and Iceland at latitude 63˚21΄Nand 4˚00΄W a 0 degree Celsius isotherm (which roughly delimits the near-bottom Arctic water from the warmer upper water) was found at a depth of 450 meters. After 16 hours, the same zero isotherm was already at a depth of 94 meters. In less than a day, an internal tidal wave raised cold water by 356 meters. In the case described, the surface of the cold underwater sea rose in the form of a gigantic internal tidal wave almost to the very surface of the ocean, cooling it, influencing the air temperature through this wave. Sometimes an internal wave breaks out to the surface. Such "breakthroughs" occur more often during the "saros" period, and even more so during the "supersaros" period, when tidal waves are greatest. During these years, the surface of the ocean cools more than usual, the strength and trajectory of cyclones change. Cyclones bring cooling and rain to the continents, where earlier annual temperatures were higher and precipitation levels were lower. In addition, heavy snowfalls begin in the highlands, ice caps in the mountains begin to grow, glaciers begin to move down the gorges, and the air temperature in mountain valleys drops. The glacier, having reached 100 km in diameter, itself becomes a climate-forming factor. The cooling of the climate is becoming global. Then the planes of the orbits of the Moon and the Earth begin to diverge, the tides, first of all domestic, become smaller, cold waters break out to the surface less and less, the air above the ocean warms up, cyclones become less active, they no longer carry so much cold and humid air to the continents. The climate is getting warmer and drier, glaciers and polar caps are starting to melt. This warming has been going on for about 900 years. After that, the planes of the orbits begin to approach each other, and the distance between the Earth and the Sun, between the Earth and the Moon, decreases. The tides are getting bigger, a period of temperature drop on Earth begins, which also lasts 900 years.
One of these 1850-year cycles can be traced quite fully according to recorded historical facts. 5th century BC . The Sun, Earth and Moon are once again in a position where the tides are several percent above their average centuries-old level. Even more than the outer tides, the inner tidal waves are increasing. Cold water from the depths comes closer to the surface of the oceans. The usual nature of the formation and movement of cyclones is sharply disturbed. The ice caps of the planet are growing. Rains revive yesterday's deserts. On top of the old frescoes of Tassili, left over from the previous two wet eras, new frescoes appear. On these frescoes we see Roman chariots moving across the blooming Sahara to storm Carthage. Hippos and crocodiles bask in warm reservoirs replenished by running water, herds of antelopes, to the delight of hunters, freely graze in the tall grasses of the savannah. North Africa becomes the granary of the entire Hellenic world, and then the Romans. At the same time, on the Alpine lakes, flood waters flood the piled settlements of the barbarians. It seemed to them that an unprecedented, unexpected catastrophe had befallen them. In the same way, the piled settlements of even wilder peoples were flooded earlier in the second millennium BC. Then the temperature on Earth began to rise. Rains in the Sahara gave way to droughts. But in Europe, by the time of the triumph of Christian barbarism, the “golden age” had come for the northern countries, which had previously been shackled by the numbness of “terrible winters”. The number of northern peoples, called Vikings, is growing rapidly, their raids are spreading further and further. Nature favors them: in the 7th - 8th centuries AD, the Arctic Ocean was practically free from perennial ice. Then the tides on the Earth are small, because the Moon and the Sun act separately. The melting of oceanic and continental glaciers increases the level of the ocean. The climate is getting drier. The rise in ocean level is accompanied by some slowdown in the rate of rotation of the Earth. Deceleration of the Earth's rotation speed reduces centrifugal forces, the Earth becomes less flattened - this mainly applies to the hydrosphere. This means that part of the water rushes from the equator to the poles. This warms up the temperate and polar latitudes even more. The process of melting ice caps and polar glaciers is accelerating even more. Already at the sunset of the "golden age" of the Vikings, Eric the Red, at the head of a whole flotilla of 25 ships, sets off to colonize the recently discovered Greenland (it would be more correct to call it Greenland - "green land" - as the Vikings called it). Of the 25 ships, only 14 reached the target. Fat pastures were opened to the settlers, on which deer were grazing not frightened by man. The Eskimos hunted far to the north, on the edge of the ice, where there was a sea animal. The Viking colonies are expanding rapidly. And already in the year 1000, Leif, the son of Eric, founded in America, in Newfoundland, Vinland. But after two or three centuries, the picture changes. Global warming is being replaced by global cooling. Vinland disappears first. Then the northern Greenland colony degenerated - only women remained there. Leaving their cattle at home, the women went to the Eskimos. The southern colony held out the longest. In 1410, the last ship to reach Europe left Greenland. The last buried colonists date back to the 15th century, although Europeans lived in southern Greenland until the early 16th century. But in the middle of the 16th century, a ship breaking through the ice found no one. A new age of terrible winters overlaid Greenland with long-term non-melting ice. But this age of terrible winters is over. It ended about 400 years ago. Since then, another global warming has begun. At the beginning of the XVIII century there was a "Little Ice Age", associated with a decrease of 2 - 3% of the energy of the Sun. (The Sun is still a weakly variable star.) In the fourth century BC, there was no industrial production on Earth, and the warming nevertheless began, developed and ended in full accordance with the 1850-year Shnitnikov cycles. These cycles are superimposed on the global warming of the deep interglacial. Therefore, for the last 15,000 years, glaciers, despite temporary advances, have been retreating further and further north. The temperature on Earth is steadily rising. Therefore, unlike in the fifth century BC, the Sahara did not flourish in the sixteenth century, as it did three times before with a period of 1850 years in the memory of the Tassili hunters. Cyclic curves showing the state of glaciers, sea level rise, and cycles of moisture regime remain congruent to earlier periods and have not changed their character over the past two centuries, recording changes associated with human activities. From this follows one undoubted conclusion - modern global warming is in no way connected with the activities of mankind. Humanity has not yet reached such a level of development to become a globally significant force .
What lies ahead for us?
We have several (4 - 5) "golden" centuries ahead of us, when the glaciers will continue to melt. In Iceland, half-ruined Viking settlements appeared from under the retreating glaciers. The Arctic Ocean will cease to be Arctic, in Antarctica, perhaps, the coastline of the mainland will be exposed. But in 400 - 500 years, the global temperature increase will stop and its decrease will begin. Will the temperature level return to its current level in about 1000 years? There is no certainty in this. The reason is that for the last 15,000 years, the temperature trend has been rising, despite the 1850 warming-cooling cycle. This explains the fact that the Sahara at the turn ofXV - XVI centuries has not blossomed once again, as it was before. Droughts in Africa will continue and intensify. Do not bypass these processes and Ukraine. The germ of the desert in the Kherson region will give life to a full-fledged desert in the south of the country. The steppe Crimea will cease to be a steppe and turn into a semi-desert. The steppes will move to the north, the steppe and forest-steppe zone will come close to the northern border of the country and cross it. The rivers will become shallow and dry up. The population of the country will be greatly reduced, including due to migration. It will not be possible to grow anything on the currently existing chernozems - there will not be enough water for irrigation. What should be done now and immediately? Prohibit deforestation in general, and plant new forest plantations at a distance of 1.5 kilometers from the water line of rivers and reservoirs, declaring them reserved. Restore the artificial irrigation system on the territory of 5 million hectares, destroyed during the years of "independence". Restore the system of windbreaks with their width and pitch required for arid climate
The period of the current interglacial period will last for about 7-9 thousand years, after which the next 100 thousand-year period of global glaciation will begin. Our descendants will have to make very serious efforts in order to avoid or reduce the disastrous consequences for humanity of the new ice age.
There is evidence that the area of ice cover suddenly began to increase in the Arctic, and the activity of the Sun dropped to a century-old minimum.
Nature turns on the refrigerator, according to the Rossiyskaya Gazeta website. The European satellite CryoSat recorded that the mass of ice cover was 9 thousand cubic kilometers last autumn, which is much more than previously observed. And the hope for the growth of ice in the Arctic appeared in the summer, when the area of ice cover reached 5.1 million square kilometers. This is 1.5 times higher than in 2012.
It was the Arctic that became one of the main arguments of the supporters of global warming, recalls " Russian newspaper". The area of multi-year ice over the past ten years in the Arctic has decreased by about 40%. The glaciers that emerged 5,500 years ago “shrink” by 90% during the 20th century. And then the CryoSat satellite brought unexpected good news: the Arctic is "coming" to its senses.
The second blow to the theory of global warming was dealt by the Sun. Its activity has reached a minimum in 100 years. This could be the beginning of a new ice age. British professor Richard Harrison argues that the Earth again needs to prepare for the so-called Maunder minimum - the period from 1645 to 1715, when a long decline in solar activity led to the "Little Ice Age", the coldest in more than 500 years since the XIV century.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, an employee of the Pulkovo Observatory, also speaks about global cooling. According to him, the activity of our luminary is declining. This can cause a serious drop in the temperature of the oceans and, as a result, lead to global cooling on the planet. A similar opinion has just been expressed by the Japanese oceanologist Mototaka Nakamura. According to his estimates, it will get colder so much that the ice cover can spread almost to the current tropics, which, by the way, has already happened in the history of the Earth. And in total, 15 ice ages of 10 thousand years each were recorded on the planet. Now we live at the end of another warm interglacial period, and we must prepare for the entry into the next ice age.
However, such statements by a number of scientists do not mean at all that a final verdict has been issued. Heated disputes between supporters and opponents of the theory of global warming are going on with varying degrees of success. At first, the globalists clearly took the lead, pointing out that over the past 100 years there has been an unprecedented increase in the average temperature on Earth. This means that greenhouse gases, the emission of which is associated with human activities, are to blame for everything. The result of the disputes was the famous Kyoto Protocol, which requires countries to drastically limit the emission of harmful gases.
Opponents of this scenario, however, found counterarguments and removed the blame for global warming from man. The most interesting data, covering 750,000 years, was obtained from the study of Antarctic ice. It turned out that the three previous warm interglacials (and we are now living in the same period) were much warmer than the current one, that is, the average temperature on Earth in the modern era is 1.5-2 degrees lower than it was in those distant times. But at that time, man had not yet appeared on Earth, and there was no one to blame for natural disasters. This means that nothing extraordinary is happening in nature now, all the current “phenomena” have already happened, and without human participation.
And, finally, the main argument of the opponents of the anthropogenic theory. According to Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Kotlyakov, the warmest peak of the current interglacial period was already passed 5-6 thousand years ago. Now the global temperature on Earth continues to decrease, that is, things are moving towards cooling. True, it will not come tomorrow. The movement will be very slow, stretching over many hundreds and thousands of years. Opponents of the Kyoto Protocol believe that humans should be acquitted of the charge of global warming. The reason is not him, but natural cycles. The reasons for such global climate fluctuations are not yet clear to scientists.
Academician Kotlyakov also believes that periods of excruciating heat, which now occur almost annually, fit into the overall picture. With a general trend towards cooling, short-term bursts of temperature increase are possible. For example, over the last millennium, the warmest previous epoch falls on the 10th-11th centuries AD. e., when the Vikings sailed far to the North and discovered Greenland. And then, in the XVI and XVII centuries, the Little Ice Age began. Europe had such cold winters that in many parts of Europe that are considered warm today, people skated on frozen canals.
After analyzing the temperature of the water in the oceans over the past 50 years, scientists have come to the conclusion that as early as 2015 we can expect global cooling.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Main Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg, believes that from 2012 to 2015 the temperature will begin to slowly drop. Abdusamatov claims that our planet passed the peak of global warming back in 1998-2005.
Officials from Japan's National Marine Research Agency said they found water temperatures in the Greenland Sea indicate that the Northern Hemisphere is at the end of a warming cycle that began in 1980.
There is nothing surprising in this. In the Middle Ages, global warming was followed by global cooling - the Little Ice Age
The fact that there was a warming, scientists learned by studying the deposits of the mineral ikaite.
Ikaite crystals are formed in the seas and lakes during low temperatures with the participation of bottom water. The mineral is found off the coasts of Greenland and Antarctica. And when it gets colder on Earth, it absorbs heavy isotopes of oxygen-18 from the bottom water. And when it gets warmer, the lighter isotope of oxygen-16 begins to dominate in ikaite.
Scientists have drilled a well off the coast of Antarctica. The ikaite core was extracted, which corresponded to its deposits accumulated over 2 thousand years. And we looked at when there was more oxygen-18, and when there was more oxygen-16. And they figured out when it was warm and when it was cold.
The warming in the Middle Ages was replaced by a cooling, which was called the Little Ice Age. In 1621 the Bosporus froze, in 1709 the Adriatic Sea froze. On the Thames and the Danube skated and sledge. London was covered in snow. In Russia in 1601, 1602 and 1604 frosts hit in July.
The data coincided with the annals: when Europe was engulfed by the Medieval Warming, the temperature rose in Antarctica too - to put it mildly, on the other side of the world. In other words, it - warming - was global.
But what about the notorious greenhouse effect from human activity?
British scientists believe they have unraveled the mystery of global warming: they have found that over the past 30 years, humidity has risen sharply on Earth, and this is one of the main factors of climate change on the planet, no less serious than the constant emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This results in a vicious circle: the higher the temperature, the more evaporation and the higher the level of humidity, and the humidity creates a greenhouse effect, which again increases the temperature.
But most scientists agree on one thing: life on Earth (including climate change) depends on the incoming energy from solar radiation. And humanity greatly exaggerates its importance in this process. The modern and expected in the foreseeable future industrial impact on nature is not capable of changing the world in the same way as the Sun. There is a long solar cycle - about 200 years. During this time, the activity and luminosity of the Sun gradually decrease to a minimum, and then increase. Scientists, supporters of the theory of cooling, have determined that now our planet lives in the conditions of a "cooling" Sun.
A stable decrease in temperature on a global scale will begin in 2013-2015. And it will last for about half a century. In 2055-2060 there will be a deep temperature minimum. After this period of cold weather, according to the law of cyclicity, warming will definitely come again.